[This blog suggests all freedom movements
and freedom lovers adopt variants of the color 'blue' as the
world-wide symbol for the universal moral philosophy of freedom.
For example, 'Persian Blue' flags, pins, headscarves, ribbons
draped down both sides of the proud Iranian flag or the revered
green flag of Islam, shirts or blouses--anything 'Persian
Blue'--would give silent but visible support for Iran's freedom.
Our blue sky is universal.]
August
6, 2010
Let's
talk: The President's overall ratings are now majority negative,
after a steady year-and-a-half-long decline from overwhelming
majority positive. Guess they weren't so 'overwhelmingly'
positive after all. Mr. Obama has hit -5% on the spread between
negative and positive opinions, and still falling.
Iran's
theofascist government is expressing a willingness to return
to talks. Great, but what are the pre-conditions, if any?
Willingness to talk about everything except their dual-purpose
nuclear program are not really 'talks.'
Germany's
government recently termed American calls by our Treasury
Secretary Geithner for increased government spending in Germany,
"nonsense." Germany is rich from exporting, America
is broke from government spending, so guess who the world
is listening to?
Dr.
Krugman is accusing others of "flimflam" economics.
He knows better than anyone how to suggest 'flimflam' economics.
Went
long the December Euro yesterday, and short January gold,
believing German prosperity will bolster the Euro, and that
market expectations for near-term deflation will diminish
the attraction for owning gold.
UNESCO
is naming a chair in Human Rights for the President of Equatorial
Guinea, who can best be described as a kleptomaniac. (Sigh).
The U.N.!
'Be
free.'
* * *
July
22, 2010
Let's
talk: Dr. Ledeen has a posting yesterday on his 'Faster, Please'
blog, again implying that the fall of the regime in Iran is
imminent. Like Dr. Krugman on the political Left constantly
predicting a recession, Dr. Ledeen on the political Right
will eventually be proven correct in predicting the downfall
of theofascism in Iran. Eventually.
Some
savants call this propensity to predict a future without a
certain date, 'historicism,' where the predictor is never
wrong because history will eventually turn their way. The
consequence, however, is much like the child's story of the
jokester boy crying "wolf" when no wolf was present,
and then no one responds any more during the one time the
wolf actually is a threat.
This
whipsawing of emotions for a non-event suggests an apocalyptic
world-view, one where eschatogical ruin or positive regime
change is but a prayer away from occuring. It's good to have
hope, and it is prudent to be skeptical, but it is mentally,
emotionally, and intellectually exhausting trying to follow
the frequent predictions of an apocalyptic.
Iran's
theofascism is no closer to collapsing this week than it was
last month or the month before. An accurate predictor of the
regime's tenure will be 2011's country-wide municipal elections,
2012's Majli elections, and then 2013's presidential elections.
Hopefully, Dr. Ledeen's predictions are coming true. However,we'll
know better on Iranian election days, and I do not see the
theofascists risk losing their hard-earned control over all
three branches of the Iranian government in elections. The
elections will be rigged and the theofascism will remain in
power into 2014, and beyond.
'Be
free.'
Archive:
'Theofascism and Duocide'
* * *
June
28, 2010
Let's
talk: The 6/14 posting is in error. No aids ships ever left
Iran for Gaza. Further, the humanitarian aid from Iran will
get to Gaza by other means than running the Israeli sea blockade.
The
Iranian government is reported to have decided not to run
the Israeli blockade after Israel notified the United Nations
than any ship from Iran running the blockade of Gaza would
be considered to be an act of war, presumably resulting a
full retaliatory response. Iran backed down, albeit beligerently.
What
happens if Iranian aid is re-stacked on Turkish ships? Or,
Syrian? Or, Lebanese, or Saudi? One more skillful push and
the entire Israeli blockade will fall like a house of cards.
'Be
free.'
Archive:
'On the Nation-State'
* * *
June
14, 2010
Let's
talk: The first of two Red Crescent humanitarian aid ships
left Iran today, bound for Gaza. The President of Iran's threat
to put Iranian Marines aboard the ships to confront the Israeli
blockade has apparently been over-ruled by the IRGC (a parallel
military organization with its own navy), which speaks volumes
about who is actually in charge in Iran.
So
many unasked questions: Such as, will Iranian submarines or
surface warships be escorting the aid ships? Will the ships
fly the flag of the Red Crescent, or will they be draped in
the national flag, as the Turkey blockade runners were two
weeks ago? Where are the Israeli submarines? The Israeli inquiry
into the Gaza blockade is barely started; what happens to
that inquiry as the Iranian ships approach? Will the Iranian
ships sail to Turkey first, in order to assemble another flotilla?
Where will the Egyptian Navy be stationed as the Iranians
approach Gaza? Very importantly, where will the Turkey Navy
warships be stationed as the Iranian aid ships approach Gaza?
Simply
for the sake of argument, what does Israel do if these, or
future, aid ships to Gaza are accompanied by elements of the
navies of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Iran? When
Iran becomes nuclear-armed, isn't such a well-armed, multi-national
blockade- run an ideal way to smuggle an atomic weapon into
Israel, or position one just off-shore?
Israel
needs to vacate the Middle East. Time to admit to making a
mistake, and re-locate Israel to the continent of North America,
along the 49th parallel.
'Be
free.'
Archive:
'Theofascism'
* * *
June
12, 2010
Let's
talk: A comment to a Kevin Sullivan post at 'RCW,' asking
where is the 'silent majority' in Iran on the one year anniversary
of last year's demonstrations in Tehran:
"Iranian
scholars at Durham University, Drs. Anoushiravan Ehteshami
and Mahjoob Zweiri, have a 2007 book that presages Mr. Sullivan's
characterization of the form of governance in Iran as religiously
"populist," rather than being religiously "fundamentalist."
The current president of Iran, Dr. Ahmadinejad, may well be
a populist in the Khomeini tradition of populism, but their
brand of populism is better and more accurately described
as "radically revolutionary." There is something
quite myopic, if not self-deceptive myth-building, in characterizing
a murderous form of governance as being nothing more than
'populist.'
As
alternatives to Mr. Sullivan's two reasons for the 'missing
majority' of Iranians, there are at least two more distinct
possibilities:
One,
the form of governance in Iran is far more popular with most
Iranians than wishful democrats in the West want to believe.
Yes, many hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets
to protest their government's 'coup' of the 2009 elections,
but far more millions of Iranians stayed at home. Iran's "silent
majority" is not liberal Western; it is found in the
bazaar and in the mosques. It is decidely not liberal, and
has not been liberal for more than 100 years of repeated efforts
in Iran at implementing a democracy. Iran's silent majority
is conservative, thoroughly grounded in rural and religious
values.
Second,
and entirely related to number one, the Green Movement of
2009 was led by conservatives, men with many years of fierce
personal loyalty to, and personal participation in, the Islamic
Revolution. They all, to a man, stressed their bona fides
as loyal revolutionaries, and were adamant that they were
not counter-revolutionaries seeking an end to the form of
governance in Iran. What they were protesting last summer
was the loss of freedoms that they believed their revolution
had won for all Iranians; these men were definitely not interested
in replacing the Islamic Revolution in Iran with a different
form of government, as so many Westerners wishfully believe.
An
Ameican'French anology helps explain the key difference. The
American Revolution was a conservative revolution, that is,
it was a violent revolution to restore freedoms and rights
that the colonists believed they already had as Englishmen.
The French Revolution is a 'liberal' revolution, the violent
overthrow of a government in order to acquire new freedoms
which the revolutionaries believed they never had.
The
Islamic Rveolution in Iran is a 'liberal' revolution, aimed
at gaining freedoms never had. The Green Movement of 2009,
however, is no revolution; it is merely a 'conservative' effort
to get back freedoms that these former radical revolutionaries
believe had been recently lost.
Iranian
politics is thus fractured between devout and loyal conservatives
who fought for freedom in their Islamic Revolution, and fellow
but "radical revolutionaries" who campaign today
as populists to earn public approval and stay in power. The
third ideological leg of Iranian politics is nearly gone:
the 'liberals' are imprisoned, tongues cut, shot, hanged,
beaten, have gone underground or fled to Canada and Europe.
All 'liberal' newspapers are shut down, all 'liberal' magazines
are closed, all 'liberal' media and journalists are completely
unable to operate in today's radicalized Iranian government.
The
radicals in charge in Iran are not conservatives; in fact,
they despise Iranian conservatives--the Green Movement--as
"weak" and "corrupt" and "heretics."
The radicals in charge in Iran are theofascists, and there
is no "understanding" of theofascism to be achieved
by thirty years of on-off negotiations.
If
we want to "understand" the objectives and goals
of theofascism, read everything Khomeini wrote (and Plato's
'Republic'), and then simply count the numbers of innocent
Iranian dead. There will never be a 'Grand Bargain' with an
evolved form of Fascism; historically, all such thinking proved
to be illusory...myopic...self-deceptive."
'Be
free'
Archive:
'Theofascism'
* * *
June
7, 2010
Let's
talk:
Martin
Felstein has an article in "Weekly Standard" that
predicts further decline of the Euro, even as it highlights
his twelve year old prediction of the Euro's failing. Of course,
the Euro had ten years of success, so Dr. Feldstein's predictions
have to be taken with a long-term view.
Another
famous economist, Arthur Laffer, has an Op-Ed in today's WSJ,
predicting a double-dip recession for 2011. With so many President
Obama taxes due to increase on January 1, 2011, Dr. Laffer
is expecting consumers and businesses to book income and profits
in 2010, leaving 2011 with much diminshed income and lower
profitability.
On
a personal note, I went short the Euro last week at 120. Today
it is at 118.
'Be
free'
Archive:
'On Economics'