[This blog suggests all freedom movements and freedom lovers adopt variants of the color 'blue' as the world-wide symbol for the universal moral philosophy of freedom. For example, 'Persian Blue' flags, pins, headscarves, ribbons draped down both sides of the proud Iranian flag or the revered green flag of Islam, shirts or blouses--anything 'Persian Blue'--would give silent but visible support for Iran's freedom. Our blue sky is universal.]

August 6, 2010

Let's talk: The President's overall ratings are now majority negative, after a steady year-and-a-half-long decline from overwhelming majority positive. Guess they weren't so 'overwhelmingly' positive after all. Mr. Obama has hit -5% on the spread between negative and positive opinions, and still falling.

Iran's theofascist government is expressing a willingness to return to talks. Great, but what are the pre-conditions, if any? Willingness to talk about everything except their dual-purpose nuclear program are not really 'talks.'

Germany's government recently termed American calls by our Treasury Secretary Geithner for increased government spending in Germany, "nonsense." Germany is rich from exporting, America is broke from government spending, so guess who the world is listening to?

Dr. Krugman is accusing others of "flimflam" economics. He knows better than anyone how to suggest 'flimflam' economics.

Went long the December Euro yesterday, and short January gold, believing German prosperity will bolster the Euro, and that market expectations for near-term deflation will diminish the attraction for owning gold.

UNESCO is naming a chair in Human Rights for the President of Equatorial Guinea, who can best be described as a kleptomaniac. (Sigh). The U.N.!

'Be free.'

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July 22, 2010

Let's talk: Dr. Ledeen has a posting yesterday on his 'Faster, Please' blog, again implying that the fall of the regime in Iran is imminent. Like Dr. Krugman on the political Left constantly predicting a recession, Dr. Ledeen on the political Right will eventually be proven correct in predicting the downfall of theofascism in Iran. Eventually.

Some savants call this propensity to predict a future without a certain date, 'historicism,' where the predictor is never wrong because history will eventually turn their way. The consequence, however, is much like the child's story of the jokester boy crying "wolf" when no wolf was present, and then no one responds any more during the one time the wolf actually is a threat.

This whipsawing of emotions for a non-event suggests an apocalyptic world-view, one where eschatogical ruin or positive regime change is but a prayer away from occuring. It's good to have hope, and it is prudent to be skeptical, but it is mentally, emotionally, and intellectually exhausting trying to follow the frequent predictions of an apocalyptic.

Iran's theofascism is no closer to collapsing this week than it was last month or the month before. An accurate predictor of the regime's tenure will be 2011's country-wide municipal elections, 2012's Majli elections, and then 2013's presidential elections. Hopefully, Dr. Ledeen's predictions are coming true. However,we'll know better on Iranian election days, and I do not see the theofascists risk losing their hard-earned control over all three branches of the Iranian government in elections. The elections will be rigged and the theofascism will remain in power into 2014, and beyond.

'Be free.'

Archive: 'Theofascism and Duocide'

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June 28, 2010

Let's talk: The 6/14 posting is in error. No aids ships ever left Iran for Gaza. Further, the humanitarian aid from Iran will get to Gaza by other means than running the Israeli sea blockade.

The Iranian government is reported to have decided not to run the Israeli blockade after Israel notified the United Nations than any ship from Iran running the blockade of Gaza would be considered to be an act of war, presumably resulting a full retaliatory response. Iran backed down, albeit beligerently.

What happens if Iranian aid is re-stacked on Turkish ships? Or, Syrian? Or, Lebanese, or Saudi? One more skillful push and the entire Israeli blockade will fall like a house of cards.

'Be free.'

Archive: 'On the Nation-State'

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June 14, 2010

Let's talk: The first of two Red Crescent humanitarian aid ships left Iran today, bound for Gaza. The President of Iran's threat to put Iranian Marines aboard the ships to confront the Israeli blockade has apparently been over-ruled by the IRGC (a parallel military organization with its own navy), which speaks volumes about who is actually in charge in Iran.

So many unasked questions: Such as, will Iranian submarines or surface warships be escorting the aid ships? Will the ships fly the flag of the Red Crescent, or will they be draped in the national flag, as the Turkey blockade runners were two weeks ago? Where are the Israeli submarines? The Israeli inquiry into the Gaza blockade is barely started; what happens to that inquiry as the Iranian ships approach? Will the Iranian ships sail to Turkey first, in order to assemble another flotilla? Where will the Egyptian Navy be stationed as the Iranians approach Gaza? Very importantly, where will the Turkey Navy warships be stationed as the Iranian aid ships approach Gaza?

Simply for the sake of argument, what does Israel do if these, or future, aid ships to Gaza are accompanied by elements of the navies of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Iran? When Iran becomes nuclear-armed, isn't such a well-armed, multi-national blockade- run an ideal way to smuggle an atomic weapon into Israel, or position one just off-shore?

Israel needs to vacate the Middle East. Time to admit to making a mistake, and re-locate Israel to the continent of North America, along the 49th parallel.

'Be free.'

Archive: 'Theofascism'

 

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June 12, 2010

Let's talk: A comment to a Kevin Sullivan post at 'RCW,' asking where is the 'silent majority' in Iran on the one year anniversary of last year's demonstrations in Tehran:

"Iranian scholars at Durham University, Drs. Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Mahjoob Zweiri, have a 2007 book that presages Mr. Sullivan's characterization of the form of governance in Iran as religiously "populist," rather than being religiously "fundamentalist." The current president of Iran, Dr. Ahmadinejad, may well be a populist in the Khomeini tradition of populism, but their brand of populism is better and more accurately described as "radically revolutionary." There is something quite myopic, if not self-deceptive myth-building, in characterizing a murderous form of governance as being nothing more than 'populist.'

As alternatives to Mr. Sullivan's two reasons for the 'missing majority' of Iranians, there are at least two more distinct possibilities:

One, the form of governance in Iran is far more popular with most Iranians than wishful democrats in the West want to believe. Yes, many hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets to protest their government's 'coup' of the 2009 elections, but far more millions of Iranians stayed at home. Iran's "silent majority" is not liberal Western; it is found in the bazaar and in the mosques. It is decidely not liberal, and has not been liberal for more than 100 years of repeated efforts in Iran at implementing a democracy. Iran's silent majority is conservative, thoroughly grounded in rural and religious values.

Second, and entirely related to number one, the Green Movement of 2009 was led by conservatives, men with many years of fierce personal loyalty to, and personal participation in, the Islamic Revolution. They all, to a man, stressed their bona fides as loyal revolutionaries, and were adamant that they were not counter-revolutionaries seeking an end to the form of governance in Iran. What they were protesting last summer was the loss of freedoms that they believed their revolution had won for all Iranians; these men were definitely not interested in replacing the Islamic Revolution in Iran with a different form of government, as so many Westerners wishfully believe.

An Ameican'French anology helps explain the key difference. The American Revolution was a conservative revolution, that is, it was a violent revolution to restore freedoms and rights that the colonists believed they already had as Englishmen. The French Revolution is a 'liberal' revolution, the violent overthrow of a government in order to acquire new freedoms which the revolutionaries believed they never had.

The Islamic Rveolution in Iran is a 'liberal' revolution, aimed at gaining freedoms never had. The Green Movement of 2009, however, is no revolution; it is merely a 'conservative' effort to get back freedoms that these former radical revolutionaries believe had been recently lost.

Iranian politics is thus fractured between devout and loyal conservatives who fought for freedom in their Islamic Revolution, and fellow but "radical revolutionaries" who campaign today as populists to earn public approval and stay in power. The third ideological leg of Iranian politics is nearly gone: the 'liberals' are imprisoned, tongues cut, shot, hanged, beaten, have gone underground or fled to Canada and Europe. All 'liberal' newspapers are shut down, all 'liberal' magazines are closed, all 'liberal' media and journalists are completely unable to operate in today's radicalized Iranian government.

The radicals in charge in Iran are not conservatives; in fact, they despise Iranian conservatives--the Green Movement--as "weak" and "corrupt" and "heretics." The radicals in charge in Iran are theofascists, and there is no "understanding" of theofascism to be achieved by thirty years of on-off negotiations.

If we want to "understand" the objectives and goals of theofascism, read everything Khomeini wrote (and Plato's 'Republic'), and then simply count the numbers of innocent Iranian dead. There will never be a 'Grand Bargain' with an evolved form of Fascism; historically, all such thinking proved to be illusory...myopic...self-deceptive."

'Be free'

Archive: 'Theofascism'

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June 7, 2010

Let's talk:

Martin Felstein has an article in "Weekly Standard" that predicts further decline of the Euro, even as it highlights his twelve year old prediction of the Euro's failing. Of course, the Euro had ten years of success, so Dr. Feldstein's predictions have to be taken with a long-term view.

Another famous economist, Arthur Laffer, has an Op-Ed in today's WSJ, predicting a double-dip recession for 2011. With so many President Obama taxes due to increase on January 1, 2011, Dr. Laffer is expecting consumers and businesses to book income and profits in 2010, leaving 2011 with much diminshed income and lower profitability.

On a personal note, I went short the Euro last week at 120. Today it is at 118.

'Be free'

Archive: 'On Economics'