Optimists and Pessimists

March 26, 2013

Weak Principles

By Don Kirk in Optimists and Pessimists, Philosophy of Mind, Political Psychology, Political Theory

The School of Life in London runs a philosophy blog where a Mr. Stevenson has seven ‘Principles of Optimism.’ His principles of optimism include being busy, have ambition for the future, devote your life to something more important than the self, expose yourself to new ideas, be an empiricist, and suffer criticism gladly. Hmm.

The first five could describe Hitler or Stalin as optimists. Nothing provokes more head-shaking than listening to a philosopher describe how much of an optimist Karl Marx was. Optimism is a psychology, not a set of principles.

It is possible to inject optimism into a pessimistic life, and the mental health improvements are well-studied and documented. But it is how we form our pessimism originally that is just as important as employing ‘principles’ to become more optimistic.

The perceptions of the partially-full/empty glass of water are grounded in how we perceive human nature. If we find humans to be inherently bad, we develop a pessimistic psychology. If we find humans to be inherently good, we develop an optimistic psychology.

The easy test of the divide is to notice how we vote: if we approve of statism, we are pessimists wanting the state to assert control over inherently bad human beings. If we approve of less-regulated humans, we are optimists. ‘Principles’ do not have much to do with it, because the two psychologies are deeply imbeded in everyone. And note, such ‘principles’ can easily be used to describe people who are definitely not optimists.

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January 31, 2013

Optimists & Pessimists

By Don Kirk in Optimists and Pessimists

plastic

From the always top-notch Carpe Diem blog, a per capita measure of cosmetic surgery. By one way of thinking, this chart measures how much a society values self-improvement. By another way of thinking, this chart measures how little self-esteem a society has. How do you see it; is your partial glass half-full or half-empty?

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January 24, 2013

The Apple of Your Eye

By Don Kirk in Economics, Optimists and Pessimists

Two charts. Above, the chart of the price of Apple steadily dropping tens of billions of dollars in value over the past several months. Below, the chart of the Dow Industrial Average rising until it is now within just one day’s trading of the all-time record high. Which is correctly predicting the nearby future, pessimistic investors in America’s premier corporation or optimistic investors in the overall economy?

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November 29, 2012

Ouija Board Economics

By Don Kirk in Economics, Optimists and Pessimists, Political Psychology

One of the more accurate forecasters of recessions is the Producer’s Manufacturing Index, the much-watched PMI. As in all human studies, prediction is a fallible art, not a reliable science.

With that caveat of potential error, note in the chart above, from the Calculated Risk blog, that the red line tracking the Institute of Supply Management’s PMI is currently bouncing off of zero. That’s the good news. But notice also, in the past twelve years which include two recessions, in two out of three drops below zero and then a bounce upward result in a later plunge downward. Hitting zero marks a slowdown, and the recovery from zero usually but not always appears to be only temporary.

So, does this mean we are headed for another recession, or are we now in the lucky one of three lasting bounces off of zero? If you believe in reading tea leaves or rolled bird bones or spilled cat guts, you are a Pessimist and we are headed for a ‘double-dip’ recession. If you believe government can rescue an economy, you are an Optimist and we will not fall back into a recession during 2013. However, if you believe governments unintentionally are the true cause of recessions, you are a pluralist and we are just as likely to be on the verge of another recession as not, a thoroughly ambiguous forecast that demands humility whenever dealing with human studies.

[Email comments welcome: duoism(at)sbcglobal.net]

November 23, 2012

By Don Kirk in Economics, Foreign Affairs, Optimists and Pessimists

The Greek stock market versus the Chinese stock market. Greece’s socialist economy is in full depression; China’s socialist economy is the best among developing nations. Have any idea of why China’s market is faltering while Greece’s market is rallying? Here’s one idea. The Communist Party in China controls their market and growth is forecast to slow down. Greece’s market has private companies and perhaps Greece has already hit bottom, so their future looks to be brighter.

Markets measure confidence, and the lack of confidence.

[Email comments welcome: duoism(at)sbcglobal.net]

July 20, 2012

Jobs go Begging

By Don Kirk in Optimists and Pessimists, Prosperity vs. Poverty

North Dakota has the nation’s lowest rate of unemployment (2.9%), because of the oil-field boom in the state. The shortage of workers has more than 336 drilling wells standing idle, waiting for crews to put them into operation.

Nevada has the nation’s worst unemployment rate (11.2%), because of the bust in housing. Presumably, idle construction workers in Nevada’s busted housing industry have the hard-hat skills that could quickly be re-trained to operate an oil well.

But if you walk downtown Reno in northern Nevada on any one of 300 sunny days, you will be repeatedly accosted by beggars asking you to give them your ‘change.’ On the main street of Reno, the beggars are lined up along both sidewalks between the major casinos, panhandling the tourists walking from one casino to another.

There is no data on how many Nevada unemployed construction workers even bother to seek a paying job in North Dakota, but the permanently unemployed in Nevada apparently make too much money begging to risk going to find work in the booming oil fields half a continent away. The labor shortage in North Dakota oil fields is so great that local McDonald’s pay between $15-20 per hour (which is fully double the pay rate in Nevada), so begging in Nevada appears to be quite competitive.

Or could it be, that there exists a human psychology which prefers impoverity to risk-taking?

[Email comments welcome: duosim(at)sbcglobal.net]

May 30, 2012

Two Views of China’s Growth

By Don Kirk in Foreign Affairs, Optimists and Pessimists

In today’s on-line The Diplomat, Dr. Minxin Pei at the Claremont McKenna College notes the most recent fall in China’s GDP growth to 8.1%. According to Professor Pei, this drop below the prior 8.3% growth “means lower demand” in China, causing worsened future performance.

There is another view, which notes that the Chinese government’s forecast was for 7.5% growth, so the actual performance beat official expectations. How is that a negative? Furthermore, there is no other major economy in the world that is performing at China’s 8.1%. Even Germany, the growth champion of Europe, is utterly stagnant at .5% growth last month, which means that China’s economy is growing sixteen times the rate of Germany’s. China’s economy is growing four times faster than the U.S. Again, how is that a negative?

Not that there are not plenty of long-term, systemic problems in China’s economy. The SOE’s are rife with corruption and inefficiency, the banks are worse, and the economic model of market-Marxism or controlled-capitalism that the Chinese practice cannot endure, because there are so many internal contradictions. Still, the present growth is stellar despite all of the systemic problems. The Chinese can gaze out at Europe’s and America’s economic problems and give thanks they have theirs, not ours.

Dr. Pei’s critique is valuable for pointing out the many problems in China, but their fall in growth rate is not a problem, except to those whose views are colored by the personal psychology of Pessimism.

[Email comments are welcome: duoism(at)sbcglobal.net]

Optimists and Pessimists

Weak Principles

Optimists & Pessimists

The Apple of Your Eye

Ouija Board Economics

Jobs go Begging

Two Views of China’s Growth

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